On June 15, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its latest monetary policy meeting, approving a 75 basis point interest rate hike, the highest one-time increase in nearly three decades. At the press conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell said that inflation has unexpectedly risen since the May meeting. In response, the Fed decided to sharply raise interest rates. The next meeting is most likely to be 50 basis points or 75 basis points, and the move to raise rates by 75 basis points is not expected to become the norm. According to the decision of the last meeting, the Fed began to shrink its balance sheet from June 1, and planned to reduce its holdings of assets by USD 47.5 billion every month, which would increase to USD 95 billion after three months. The market had already anticipated that the Fed might take aggressive interest rate hikes, and this was exactly what happened, showing its determination to curb inflation in the short term. For this reason, some analysts believe that this will help restore the market’s confidence in U.S. monetary policy. However, many are worried about whether the U.S. will drive the global economy into a quagmire of recession under the aggressive tightening policy, adding to the increasingly pessimistic global economic outlook.
Researchers at ANBOUND are of the opinion that the Fed’s unconventional tightening policy is to resolve its post-pandemic easing policy, and to make up for last year’s policy mistakes where it asserted inflation was “transitory”. At the same time, in the context of the “politicization” of the inflation issue, its intention is to coordinate with the “mid-term elections” of the Biden administration, so as to avoid the Democratic Party from losing votes due to uncontrollable inflation. Controlling inflation has become the Fed’s primary policy objective right now, even if the economy gets cooling down. While the Fed has made a choice between controlling inflation and maintaining growth, it does not mean that the contradiction will disappear. Instead, it will rebound like a seesaw, and the future will face more severe challenges.
Powell said that the next meeting is most likely to be 50 or 75 basis points, and that 75 basis points of interest rate hikes are not expected to become the norm. The pace of rate hikes will depend on future data. The federal funds rate is expected to be raised above 2.0% and below 3.0% by the end of summer 2022. It is hoped that by the end of 2022, interest rates can be raised to a restrictive level of 3.0%-3.5%. The dot plot shows Fed officials expect the benchmark rate to rise to 3.4% by the end of this year and 3.8% by the end of 2023. Corresponding to this unexpected rate hike, the Fed has already started to shrink its balance sheet in June. This “double tightening” policy will not only have an impact on the U.S. and global capital markets, but also inevitably affect the U.S. economic demand. Regarding the risk of a U.S. recession, Powell believes that after a slight decline in the first quarter, overall economic activity appears to have picked up, and the demand side of the economy is still running red-hot. He stated that the Fed will not try to induce a recession in the U.S. right now, and that the U.S. economy is well prepared for the FOMC to raise interest rates, adding that real GDP growth has picked up in the second quarter. He noted that there is no progress on inflation falling, though the Fed would like to see signs of that. Powell also expressed that wages are not responsible for the current high U.S. inflation, and there is no wage-price spiral.
Powell remains confident in the U.S. economy. Indeed, judging from the employment and other data, the U.S. economic growth remains healthy. However, the U.S. capital market has begun to show signs of adjustment. Not only U.S. stocks have retreated, but the bond market has also fluctuated, driving the yields of government bonds with reference significance to rise sharply. At the same time, the real estate market, which has performed well after the pandemic, will also be affected by the sharp rise in interest rates, and there are signs of “topping”. These economic and financial changes, as well as the slump in consumer demand brought on by high inflation, mean the outlook for the U.S. economy is not as rosy as Powell had painted. Raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet too quickly is bound to have a significant inhibitory effect on the U.S. economy. Even if economic growth does not fall into recession, it will decline as inflation falls, which will intensify contradictions such as debt, investment, and distribution.
At the same time, Powell mentioned that the Fed will carefully study why U.S. inflation is “stubbornly high”, indicating that the Fed’s aggressive interest rate hike policy may have limited effect on curbing inflation in the short term. Deep-rooted inflation has both demand and supply-side structural factors, which means that after the inflation level falls, it will still be higher than the Fed’s 2% policy target for a certain period of time. Therefore, as the Fed’s roadmap shows, the pace of the rate hikes will not stop anytime soon, and may continue to increase until the mid-term elections. Under the maintenance of inflation and the downward trend of the economy, the dilemma that the Fed will face in the future has become more prominent.
The “overshoot” of the Fed’s monetary policy will not only have a huge impact on the U.S. economy, but will also drag global central banks into monetary policy tightening, which is bound to hurt the global economy. Some media reported that at least 60 central banks around the world have taken tightening actions earlier than the Fed or followed it during the year, while some have also adopted multiple rounds of interest rate hikes. Many economists have warned that the recent wave of rate hikes is only the beginning of a global tightening cycle. In Europe, Japan and others, global financial conditions will need to tighten further in order to re-anchor inflation expectations. Researchers at ANBOUND pointed out that under the expectation of global central bank policy tightening, economic growth will decline in tandem with inflation falling from a high level, and a new balance of coexistence of low growth and moderate inflation is likely to happen. It should be noted that the current global economic, trade, financial, and monetary environment is undergoing drastic changes, and it would be difficult for future development to return to the pre-pandemic “normal” model, which will exacerbate the trend of global economic fragmentation.
The Federal Reserve’s tightening policy means that it has made a “politicized” choice between controlling inflation and maintaining growth. This will inevitably affect the U.S. and the global economy. This means that there will be more prominent contradictions in the future. As such, one cannot rule out the change of government in the United States due to the failure of sharp interest rate hikes.
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A researcher at ANBOUND, graduated from the School of Mathematics at Peking University and has a PhD in economics from the University of Birmingham, UK
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Under auspices of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and China holding the 14th Summit, it provides the platform to address emerging global and thorny regional problems. The BRICS member countries collectively represent about 26% of the world’s geographic area and are home to 2.88 billion people, about 40% of the world’s population.
What are the issues at stake: During the past two decades, new geopolitical confrontation as between democracy and authoritarianism, and unipolar and multipolar system, have partly appeared between the United States and Europe on one side and Russia and China on the other side. There other ccountries that are followers of the these distinctive groups. The group deeply dissatisfied about unipolar system and global hegemony throttled by the United States.
Despite the individual differences, BRICS members ultimately seek to consolidate its position, with a number of instruments at hand, in the development of the new global order and therefore have the following:
(i) Unified front and expansion of the group, demonstrate its effectiveness in addressing emerging tasks on regional and international stage. For instance in May, China suggested launching discussions of the issue that Argentina and Saudi Arabia had expressed interest in joining BRICS.
According to experts, other potential candidates include Bangladesh, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Uruguay who joined the BRICS New Development Bank last year. In addition, analysts point out that events held on the sidelines of the BRICS foreign ministers meeting involved representatives of Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Nigerian and Thailand.
A number of countries are already on the list as potential new members. The final positions is that this geopolitical configuration is in exploratory phases, undoubtedly meant to bring a new axis of Russia-China but inclusion of Mexico , Indonesia and Turkey has its own strategic baggage. The procedures have to be thoroughly examined and reviewed, the dialogue is of importance to further expand BRICS.
(ii) The question of creating an international reserve currency based on a basket of currencies of the BRICS countries is being considered. In addition, the development of reliable alternative mechanisms for international settlements is being drawn up together with BRICS partners.
Russia’s financial messaging system is open for the connection of banks of the five countries. The geography of Russia’s Mir payment system is being expanded. The fact is that there are comprehensive measures directed at reducing the negative impact of sanctions and strengthening trade and investment ties with all interested states.
(iii) On fortifying the economic front is one key area for BRICS. Russia is feverishing cooperating with China and India. Trade among them has witnessed exponential growth, and Russia is set to make new legislations that could facilitate further, especially in the Central Asian region and within the Eurasian Union.
Closely relating to that Russia is advocating for expanding entrepreneurial freedoms, reducing administrative burdens, launching new preferential lending programs, and introducing tax and customs exemptions. While these aim at supporting Russia’s economy against raft of draconian sanctions, it would simultaneous help China, India and many Asia-Pacific countries that are ready to do mutual business with Russia.
Against these backdrop as briefly discussed above, BRICS can serve as an opportunity for the group to convince the world that it can be a viable financial option against Western-led institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Furthermore, combined together they possess a huge resources and only need to present a “clear-cut economic model” that ultimately be attractive and be replicated around the world. BRICS countries constitute 40 percent of the world’s population, and the group needs to engage in more interactive development processes especially the global south to get more clout as a serious global player.
China is holding the BRICS presidency in 2022. While strengthening economic, technological and scientific potential, the BRICS partners are ready to continue working on principles of respect to interests of each other, unconditional supremacy of international law, and equality of countries and peoples of the globalized world.
The 14th BRICS summit held in June, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa focused on the state of affairs and prospects of multifaceted cooperation within the group in the political, economic, cultural and humanitarian areas. The summit touched upon pressing international and regional issues and are reflected in the summit’s final declaration.
Since its establishment, the BRICS success could be described as moderate. The group has a combined population of 3.23 billion and their combined GDP is more than US$23 Trillion. Historically, the first meeting of the group began in St Petersburg in 2005. It was called RIC, which stood for Russia, India and China. Then, Brazil and subsequently South Africa joined later in February 2011, which is why now it is referred to as BRICS.
Human needs in this world cannot be separated from 3 basic needs, namely shelter, clothing and food. Clothing is one of the things that humans will always use from birth to the end of their life no matter rich or poor because everyone needs clothes during their life. The industrial sector that produces this clothing is the garment industry, the garment industry is a company engaged in the manufacture of apparel for men and women, for all ages from baby to adults. Product from garment examples such as underwear, shirts, jeans, t-shirts, jackets, blouses, etc. and usually these garment products are mass-produced with the same model. Characteristics of garments produced by garments are the models of clothing that are made usually have the same shape, garment clothing generally uses standard sizes (S, M, L, XL) or numbering (Fitinline, 2019). There are lots of garment factories in each country and usually the factory has chosen the targeted market segment according to the product production. However, there are still many obstacles that can occur in this garment industry. Among other things, the rapid changes in the garment industry so that innovation must be carried out every time because fashion is always evolving, causing this industry have to adapt to the trends that are popular with the community, as well as high competition due to the many existing garment factories so that characteristics and expertise are needed to survive. However, when a garment factory can produce products with brands that have strong characteristics, Models that are trendy and comfortable to wear, the brand can quickly become a favorite of the community and with the right promotion can build branches in several countries.
If the garment industry is an industry that focuses on apparel, then above the garment industry there is an industry that is wider in scope, namely the textile industry is one of the manufacturing industry sectors that produces starting from raw materials to become materials that have a selling value such as yarn, cloth, and finished products made from textiles. The textile industry is very large because it consists of several materials. There are natural materials such as silk, wool, and cotton. And there are also synthetic materials, namely polyester, polypropylene, nylon. As for the process of making yarn into fabric, there are 3 types, namely woven, knitted and nonwoven. Woven itself is a fabric making technique that has the principle of combining threads lengthwise and transversely or making patterns that cross each other, while knitted fabrics are fabrics made with the principle of entangling threads that are intertwined with each other to form a circle or arch so that the threads can relate to each other. Then nonwoven is a fabric that is made without going through the woven and knitting process but with a special nonwoven machine. Fabrics made with different techniques have different purposes and functions depending on the use and purpose of use.
By seeing the importance of textiles in everyday life and because textiles are an industry that will always be needed, it is not surprising that the demand for textiles is always increasing from time to time. So that countries that have large textile production can make textiles one of the economic sources for state income. Here are 3 countries with the largest textile production in the world:
It’s not new anymore if China dominates the global textile market because this country is able to have an output reaching 52.2% of global textile production in 2019. Several factors that support China to become a giant ruling textile industry are due to low production costs, technological advances that as well as, considerable supply of raw materials. These things make China the largest textile producing country in the world. In addition to being the largest textile producer, China is also the country that exports the highest textiles. From Statista data, in 2020 China was the top global textile exporter with a value of around USD 154 billion. This figure of China’s exports is almost 43.5% of the total textile export market worldwide (Inda Susanti, 2022).
India occupies the second position as the largest textile producing country in the world, textile is one of the oldest industries in India and the development of this industry is always increasing from time to time. In India there is a division into 2 sectors. The first sector is an unorganized sector that still uses human labor and simple tools. Then the second sector is an organized sector, namely a sector that is more modern because it uses combined techniques and machines. India’s textile industry is estimated to be worth USD250 billion in 2019. According to the IBEF report, India’s State textile industry accounted for 7% of industrial output in 2018/2019. It contributes 2% to India’s GDP and employs more than 45 million people in 2018/2019 (Inda Susanti, 2022).
United States of America (USA)
America is in the 3rd position with the largest textile production. America managed to account for 5.3% of the output of global textile production in 2019. The biggest strength of textiles from the United States of America comes from the production of nonwoven fabrics, medical textiles and protective clothing. By combining advanced technology and innovation, the United States continues to grow with textile production increasing every year. Citing data from the US National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO), the total value of shipments of US-made fibers and filaments, textiles and apparel amounted to approximately USD76.8 billion in 2018, up from USD73 billion in output in 2017 (Inda Susanti, 2022).
It is estimated that the demand for textiles in the future will continue to increase with the development of technology, there will be many new innovations that can be useful for human life. Especially in the garment and textile industry sector. As one of the basic human needs, it is estimated that the industry will remain stable and continue to increase, although sometimes there will be a decline but will return to a stable position. So literally the garment industry is part of the textile industry as well. However, the garment industry has a main focus on making apparel. Meanwhile, the textile industry has a wider scope because it processes from raw materials into finished materials that are ready to be reprocessed or can be sold directly without being reprocessed.
There is only one “Big Economy” within each nation; a unique economic development process harnessed around the assembly of small and medium businesses spread across any given nation. Nevertheless, mastery to lead the “Big Economy” requires big minds; so long, the small-minds only see small business as small; failing to recognize that all big businesses of the world only hatched as small babies in the past. Later, after many diaper changes SME grew into giants. This is normal in the life of a business cycle for any entrepreneurially fertile business minded landscapes.
Let there be light: Nevertheless, as a simple fact, like turning an ‘on’ and ‘off’ light switch; economies without digitization are as if without electricity, without upskilled frontline teams on tasks as if without a bulb. The Mindset Hypotheses openly challenges the visible damages to economic developments across the free world equally as monitor to growth the sooner tested across SME regions the faster the turnaround.
Fake entrepreneurialism: Unfortunately, the lack of mastery of the Big Economy is a big issue. Academia is always uncomfortable with SME, job creator entrepreneurial mindsets, for being too much out of the box rule breaker, while nestled in their own Ivey covered moist edifices feel cozy with their own job-seeker mindsets while claiming expertise on some fake entrepreneurialism of sorts. Issuing papers as wall hanging and passing judgments on entrepreneurial journeys, without once creating a single SME. Entrepreneurialism is not a degree; it is a state of mind. A quick live debate will prove all this, hence the deep silence.
Is China showing mastery in harnessing its big economy of SME? Observe across the world how much powers acquired by optimizing their SME sectors, upskilling of exporters, reskilling of manufacturers and quadrupling exportability. Now, compare this to the openly visible abuse and abundance of the SME within the free economies of the world, critically damaging levels of skills and leaving national citizenry behind in the races of global age competitiveness now in post pandemic revival left almost in salvage states.
Five Big Myths of Economic Development Debunked:
The political syndrome: politics is not creating the economical answer, as an overview, observe the art of the politics; reflected in their national leaderships of their free economies and their election wizardry all now almost gone to the dogs. Observe the chaos, nation by nation. Notice the salvage operations and runaway elections, watch the language, the populist narratives and pre-anarchy landscapes. Political power is about creating economic powers or else.
National mobilization of entrepreneurialism will save nations: The current global level rhetoric at global institutions already mandated to foster economic growth, mostly going in circles and lip servicing, geo-econo-socio-politico issues with visible absence of real concrete workable solutions. Such verbiage, followed by thousands of trade groups and chambers all joining the same chorus lines and echoing the same rhetoric visible on social media by the hours but critically lacking any hard core national mobilization programs. Of course, it takes special mindsets for special challenges, like airlines flown by trained pilots and not by frequent flyers. Acquire mastery on mobilization methodologies… why large number mobilization requirements are a mystery and why not just regular class size do?
The economic crisis fabrication: The challenge is “economy” and nothing else but economy. Here observe the assembly of casual, randomly picked expertise at play in managing the most complex and difficult puzzles of survival of humankind, the local grassroots prosperity. Notice, the majority of national crises, from economy, jobs, immigrations, crime, and education, housing or health all related to local grassroots prosperity.
What level of high schooling is required to decipher such puzzles? What we have, nation-by-nation, like some paintings- by-the-number to create masterpieces for the history of the economic museum. So what is wrong? Why is the big economy so neglected, why SME sectors are fragmented and buried under bureaucracies, red-tapes and old mentality trade groups and chambers lingering like left over burden declared some abstract SME with no future, all due to lack of job creator entrepreneurial mindsets. Absence of mastery on economic development now openly visible
Economy is not about numbers rather entrepreneurialism
The number syndrome: A calculator from a ‘dollar store’ is often sufficient as the Economy of the past is in numbers, but the economy of the future is all about entrepreneurialism. Growth is a by-product of job creator entrepreneurial mindset. Psychologist and HR both are allowed to break-up the furniture infinitum on this, but unless the mindset hypotheses is smashed, job seekers will build the organizations and job creators will create that organization in the first place; the visible damage to our economic development widespread across the free economies of the world as failure. Find answers fast
The error of mind: The term “SME” is a grave error, a misnomer created by job seeker mindset, as there is nothing small about a baby elephant. It will become an elephant in time. It is all about creating a big new company, active within a big economy of million small medium large businesses within a nation. However, such tasks must break away from the current economic development models serving selected interests, brutal toward SME treating them as small and of lesser value, unable to decipher the hidden powers of risky new business models. Mandatory study of 1000 earth-shattering entrepreneurs is necessary to avoid mistakes about the large national SME sectors treated as leftovers and spillovers from the undesired job creator mindsets. Close study and testing will prove the lingering harsh realities.
The big loss of a nation: The biggest loss to any nation is the wasteland of the ‘job creator entrepreneurial mindsets’ abandoned across the nation as lingering SME as undecipherable journeys of businesses for the formally attired degree holders as tall towers occupants of the job seekers mindsets. Lack of knowledge on properly structured Digitization, Mobilization, Exportization and global age immersion of new trades of micro exports, micro manufacturing and global competitiveness. Provided such progress led by entrepreneurial mindsets.
Throw away Teleprompters: as lip service on SME all but dried out, the only fact remains, that the SME economy by far the “Big Economy” in search of big minds, ignorance on small business fertility is a harsh lesson of today. Today, the art and science now hidden in balancing both, the job seeker and job creator mindsets to mobilize entrepreneurialism and create economic growth. Seek out authoritative dialogues and create bold open debates
The unpredictability of elections: Tragically, the cryptopia mentality stripped naked the unskilled citizenry of most free economies. Rather than creating internal Skill-Wars to create upskilling and reskilling, the leadership chose to declare Forever-Fake-Wars so their nations learn slowly to dig their own graves as metaverse therapy. Now in need of diaper change the next rounds of elections will sort out the ongoing damages. Prepare for mega change
Check the profiles on LinkedIn: Today, openly visible, across the world, on LinkedIn profiles, the Job seeker mindsets now freely running the economic development progress of the free economies of the world. What is most damaging is the absence of a job creator entrepreneurial mindset creating input and global age narratives on national mobilization of entrepreneurialism.
Absence of such mastery is visibly sinking the experimental economic development in a big way. A quick test will prove such imbalances but this requires entrepreneurial leadership to tackle such timely challenges, otherwise all failed to collect dust as some long undecipherable academic study. For authoritative analysis and special workshops on acquiring mastery on such topics, study more on Google.
Big minds urgently required; Big minds needed to deal with big economies, based on global collaboration, diversity and tolerance, as rest is crypto-tyrannies. Creating real value economic power is the ultimate leadership goal to lead a sovereign nation, as the rest is fakery. Without a big economy, get ready for the big bust; Study the origin and history of business, the art of value creation to allow differentiation to eliminate the value manipulation. The rest is easy.
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